Dollar At Crossroad

The dollar fell modestly against other major currencies but pared losses as US stocks turned lower in afternoon trading Thursday. The yen continued its steep decline against the greenback and other key currencies amid growing concerns over the deteriorating Japanese economy. Bank of Japan board member Tadao Noda said the economy is performing worse than what was expected just a few weeks ago. US and European economic data boosted concerns about the deepening global recession. US initial jobless claims rose to the highest level since October 1982, durable goods orders dropped more than expected and new home sales fell to a record-low rate.

Meanwhile, European business and consumer confidence plunged. The euro rose despite a record fall in eurozone economic sentiment, but pared gains as US stocks declined in afternoon trading. Sterling rose on the UK government decision to insure toxic assets held by UK banks. The Canadian dollar advanced on rising crude oil but pared gains on increased risk aversion..
The AUD/USD initially gained on an unexpected rise in Australia's Q4 2008 capital expenditure, reducing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates aggressively. The gains later faded as US stocks fell. Having risen modestly since making a low on October 28, the AUD/USD is near the support from the lower trading band in the positively sloping trading channel. If this support is broken, the pair will decline. The AUD/USD is also close to the resistance from the downtrend that started last summer; if this is broken, a rally will likely occur.


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